A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
